Happy Halloween!
(thanks to Alex for the image)
One of the positive signs I've seen recently is the work that Joi Ito is doing via the World Economic Forum for "Blueprint For Japan 2020." I'm encouraged because I think that Joi will be a positive voice for the future of Japan. Plus, my relative, Taro Kono, is also involved.
NY Times - At a Military Museum, the Losers Write History
"The official postwar pacifism that reigns today is tied to an understanding of a stupid, feckless militarism, which ended in hellfire and defeat," said Louise Young, author of "Japan's Total Empire, Manchuria and the Culture of Wartime Imperialism" and associate professor of history at New York University. "The museum is offering a totally unreconstructed regurgitation of pre-1945 justifications of its past; a return to fascist mytho-history."
This kind of thing is the worst kind of nationalism.
* * * * *
NY Times - Grim Figures Cast a Shadow on Japan's Bank-Debt Plan
"We're clearly preparing for another slowdown," said Ryo Hino, an economist at J. P. Morgan Securities. "The signs are already here. But the government's economic package is really designed just to catch what falls after they shake up the banks. It's damage control."
Continue reading Lies about the war; Lies about the economy.
Open Spectrum, the idea that new technology and software can allow for a much broader use of the current airwaves, is a rising tech meme.
USA Today - Powell takes path to free up airwaves
Seattle Times - Open-spectrum advocates say it will boost technology
The core of this idea [that is open spectrum] is the belief that, if the rules are tweaked the right way, technology companies in the next five years will have brought to market the equipment that will make the notion of electromagnetic-spectrum scarcity, a fundamental issue of telecom economics, seem quaint.
Equipment makers would create devices that would intelligently navigate through the congested airwaves Û the so-called spectrum Û to avoid virtual traffic jams and allow everyone from broadcasters to kids with handheld devices to use the spectrum. Consumers and tinkerers could come up with their own ideas for new applications that would run on these devices, much as they have on the Internet. In turn, the growing number of applications and tools would drive equipment demand, fostering growth of this wireless version of the Internet.
This one is a great overview.
From Japan Digest: University Disputes Government's Rosy Claim That Birthrate Will Rise
Japan's birthrate is likely to keep falling for the foreseeable future, reaching 1.24 children per woman per lifetime by 2017, the Nihon University Population Research Institute said. The prediction directly contradicts current government assumptions, on which many economic decisions are being made. The country's birthrate has fallen steadily since the early 1970s, and hit a record low at 1.33 in 2001, as women are marrying later and having fewer babies when they do. Though the accelerating trend forced the government to lower its population projections earlier this year, it is still predicting that the birthrate will bottom out at 1.31 in 2001, and start rising, to 1.38 by 2025. The Nihon University researchers begged to differ, saying the realities of life in modern Japan point to further delays in marriage and a continuing fall in birthrates. Chief reason for the continuing trend is a shrinkage of the income gap between men and women, the institute said. Women hesitate to give up their high-paying jobs to stay home with children. The institute said it thinks that's the major reason for a decline in birthrates that began in the 1980s and accelerated sharply in the 1990s. It said the trend will become more pronounced in the coming decade, causing still more women to postpone marriage and babies. If it's right, the government will have to raise employee pension premiums to about 31% of monthly pay, split between employer and employee, by 2025, rather than 28% it now plans to charge then, to maintain current levels of pension payments, Nihon Keizai said.
Japanese companies are going to have to quickly integrate more support for working mothers if the nation hopes to stem the falling birthrate. If it is money concerns that are leading women to have fewer babies later in life, then it's clear that Japanese business must intervene IF they care about having Japanese people to work in the companies in the future.
I'll be attending what looks to be a very interesting evening with the Global Business Network including Clay Shirky (whom I know via Jerry Michalski), JC Herz (author of "Joystick Nation" etc.), and Jaron Lanier. Report to come on Thurs.
I do apologize for those of you who don't care too much about the situation in Japan with their banks and the bad loans. It seems as if there's been a focus on this in my weblog recently. Part of this is because it's the main news story from Japan that I'm interested in. (The news surrounding North Korea is equally compelling but I don't have as strong of an opinion on it.)
The New York Times has really been one of the best sources for news from Japan recently, especially since so many news sources have closed their Japan bureaus. James Brooke & Ken Belson of the NY Times cover Japan excellently and I'm grateful for their work. Today is another example of great coverage:
NY Times - Japan's Sick Banking System Resists Therapy
Japan is not the only country where bank lending is driven by policy imperatives and cronyism. In China, sour loans, many made on government orders to keep huge former state-owned businesses open and people employed, are said to be worth about half the country's gross domestic product Û twice as much as in Japan. In Taiwan, Malaysia and Thailand, the relationship between banks and their lenders is similarly muddy.
But for the sheer value of bad loans, no country tops Japan. And as deflation persists and the economy deteriorates, bad loans are still accumulating faster than the banks can write them off.
NY Times - Japan's 'Zombie' Businesses Live On
"Daiei is a corporate revitalization problem, and that is really a human capital problem," Robert H. Dugger, managing director of the Tudor Investment Corporation, said on a visit here. "In Japan, there are 500 to 600 professional turnaround managers. In the United States, there are 10,000 to 12,000."
Japan Digest: Latest Takenaka Session With Bankers Bruised a Lot of Egos
Economy Minister Takenaka's Monday session with Japanese bankers (Digest, 10/28) left bruised egos all around, Nihon Keizai said. It was governed by "an atmosphere of hostility," in which the bankers tried to bring Takenaka down from his ivory tower with some straight talk about how things really work--and he responded by threatening to take his case to Prime Minister Koizumi. Takenaka called in the leaders of Japan's seven top banks to deliver the message that "A final resolution to the bad- loan cleanup issue is politically important." To that, one of the executives retorted: "Nonperforming loans are always emerging... There is no possible way that there will be a final resolution to the problem, so we ask that you do not confuse politics with the economy." Takenaka, "visibly angered," responded: "So you're ready to go against the policies of the Koizumi government? If so, then I want you to say it. I'll tell the prime minister for you."
Continue reading Takenaka vs. the bankers.
Kevin Kelly, ex-founder/editor of Wired Magazine, has a new book coming out from Taschen called "Asia Grace" that looks to be awesome. The production notes are extensive and very educational.
This book took thirty years to make; I began shooting around 1972. But it was not until recently that the technology of scanning, and pre-press, and layout was sufficiently off-the-shelf and accessible to non-professionals that I felt I could make the book that I had always seen in my imagination.
Tech's big challenge: Decentralization
Because decentralization inherently breaks down boundaries, it cuts across familiar industry categories. It's everywhere you look...but that makes it easy to miss. Some of the smartest software executives I know aren't aware of the revolutionary potential of open spectrum, while most telecom experts don't understand Web services.
Parallels abound. As it struggles with digital content distribution, for example, the entertainment industry could learn from the experience of computer companies such as IBM that had to reorient their business models away from centralized mainframes and proprietary systems. But it's hard for people to see the forest when they're used to scrutinizing the trees.
