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Yukari Kane of the WSJ pops the bubble of the iPhone in Japan.


Apple's Latest iPhone Sees Slow Japan Sales - WSJ.com

According to market-research firm MM Research Institute, Apple sold about 200,000 phones in Japan in the first two months. Since then, however, demand has been falling steadily, and analysts now widely believe sales are unlikely to reach a total of 500,000 units. That is half the one million units that they previously thought Apple could sell.

...

"Japanese users don't know what to do with an iPhone," he said. "Sales could grow if Apple provides specific examples of how it can be used."

It's interesting to think that Japanese users don't know what to do with an iPhone. I suspect that is true because Japanese users are accustomed to being inside the walled garden of their carrier, so to have the full Internet is not appreciated or understood. Japanese mobile phones have browsers but they're basically only used for the walled garden of the carrier.  I have the option of using a "full-browser" on my phone, but it would cost me 1500 yen/mo. or 18000 yen/yr. which I am certainly not willing to pay.

I believe that Roy Amara's quote is appropriate here: "We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run." I think that the effect of the iPhone on the global mobile market in the long run, specifically providing a real browser on a mobile phone (note that full-browsers are coming on Android as well as Mobile Firefox), will be the most important legacy of the iPhone.

For those of you who were unimpressed with this year's MacWorld Keynote, Forbes has the latest article, Apple's Fight In Japan, guessing whether the iPhone will do well in Japan.

It's really hard to predict whether the iPhone will do well in Japan. I'm generally skeptical so I look to the fact that the iPhone (presumably) won't have features that are unique to Japan such as the digital terrestrial TV tuner, or the digital wallet functionality, or the GPS functionality, etc. But Japanese consumers love new things and the iPhone would qualify, and yet maybe the hardcore have already purchased an iPod Touch?

The Forbes article touches on the fact that Japanese mobile phone users use one hand when operating their phones. That's a significant difference with the usage of the iPhone. The iPhone is clearly a two-hand operating model, and from the market share of mobile phones with keyboards that require two-handed usage, that's a niche market.

The question about the iPhone's success in Japan gets to the heart of the fact that Japan's mobile phone market is really an island unto itself, literally and figuratively. The fact that Samsung and Nokia have little-to-no market share in Japan and that Sony-Ericsson often launches separate Japan-only models speaks to the unique nature of this market.

Finally, and most importantly, will Jobs add a strap hook to the iPhone? I'll bet he won't, confounding the majority of Japanese users who love to accessorize their phones with straps and whatnot.

If you have thoughts on this topic, I'd love to hear from you.